But because Cook scored just two breakaway touchdowns and three touchdowns in general in 2022, he avoided the top-20 fantasy status that can overinflate expectations for players like Tony Pollard. Typically, I would fear small-sample breakaway rate leaders for fantasy more than I would fear small-sample broken tackle rate leaders. And rookie James Cook injected new explosiveness in their rushing offense, with 48.7% of his yards coming from breakaway runs (15-plus yards), the highest rate among regular backs. That’s because Devin Singletary is a consistent broken tackle rate leader. But while I wish the team would stop risking their franchise quarterback Josh Allen’s health with so many designed regular-season runs, I would also tell them to keep their backfield status quo. Pending the result of their current playoff run, the Bills seem likely to face another offseason of public pressure to add a top-end running back prospect. Breakaway Yard Percentage Breakaway Yard Percentage Leaders But I wouldn’t jump ship in dynasty formats unless Knight demonstrates a flukiness in his rookie season with poor performance in 2023. If Hall makes it back for Week 1, then Knight may not have much of a September role. But Knight is nine pounds heavier than Carter and seems to have an early-down build if he can prove he also has the skill.

Michael Carter may be a very close cautionary tale of the dangers of trusting standout broken tackle rates from small rookie samples - he was the 2021 class silver medalist with a 24.5% rate on 147 rookie carries and lost his starting job twice in his sophomore season. But the undrafted Zonovan Knight bested Hall and every rookie running back with an outlier 34.1% broken tackle rate. Breece Hall was the top prospect there and showed off his high-level traits with a 20.0% broken tackle rate before he tore his ACL. And the team may have hit on a pair of rookie running backs as well. But Garrett Wilson looked like a worthy top wide receiver pick in his 1,100-yard rookie season. In Zach Wilson, the Jets may have missed on the most important piece of their rebuild. Broken Tackle Rate, Rookies Broken Tackle Rate Leaders That was the best among heavy-volume rushers at the position and could point to a quick fantasy ascension if the Texans can make the right coaching hire and hit on their likely quarterback draft selection with the No. But Pierce excelled by my favorite measure of rushing proficiency independent of his circumstances with a 28.2% broken tackle rate. And Dameon Pierce fell short of the latter in a predictable way with just five total touchdowns in his rookie season. It is difficult for a running back to overcome a poor passing offense and find fantasy success. Broken Tackle Rate Broken Tackle Rate Leaders But I feel certain that a quarterback other than Wilson will be the Week 1 Jets starter in 2023. And Wilson can’t blame his circumstances - teammates Mike White and Joe Flacco were twice as accurate as Wilson with 9.7% and 9.5% inaccurate pass rates on their 175 and 147 respective attempts.

It was an outlier, with the rest of the bottom 10 at the position falling between 11.6% and 13.8% rates. His 18.6% inaccurate pass percentage wasn’t just the worst among regular quarterbacks. But in his second season, Wilson did not look like an NFL starter. And later-career breakouts from Ryan Tannehill, Josh Allen and now Daniel Jones have made me more open-minded to those once-elusive turnarounds. Jets head coach Robert Saleh has at least pretended to remain bullish on former No. Inaccurate Pass Rate Inaccurate Pass% Trailers He may not have been the same caliber of NFL prospect as Lawrence, but I’m as optimistic for a Year 2 Pickett fantasy breakout as I was for Lawrence. And with a low 3.1% rate of turnover-worthy plays, Pickett avoided the mistakes that subjectively seem to characterize the careers of early-round quarterback busts and landed in some pretty incredible fantasy company at his position. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence, Pickett paced the position in expected touchdown shortfall, a metric that can point to poor luck as much as ineffectiveness in the red zone. Pickett combined for just 10 passing and rushing touchdowns in his 11 rookie starts.

Kenny Pickett did not make the immediate fantasy impact some modern stars at the position like Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray have made in recent seasons. Sign up for an FTN subscription today! Turnover-Worthy Pass Rate Turnover-Worthy Pass% Leaders

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